The second week of the NRL and AFL’s Top 8 format pits high ranked losers (two of the teams ranked 1 through 4) against low ranked winners (two of those 5 through 8). I’ve gone back through the past 10 years of finals series to see if there is a trend indicating who might progress through to the preliminary finals in the penultimate week of the seasons.
In the NRL, 12 of these 20 fixtures (60 per cent) have been won by the higher ranked team. In the AFL, it is much weightier: 16 of 20 (80 per cent) of these second week match-ups have tilted to the team that was proven to be better over an arduous home and away season.
Put that together and you have 28 out of 40, or 70 per cent. Flip that into decimal betting odds and it comes out as $1.42 and change.
At the time of writing, the TAB is offering the following prices on the four higher ranked teams:
Hawks — $1.58
Swans — $1.58
Cowboys — $1.48
Raiders — $1.80
All four higher ranked teams are paying over the historical trendline. My advice? Put a lazy tenner on all four to win plus a proactive blueboy on the multi for a potential payout of $131.
Or just put $50 on an as-yet unreleased Nick Murphy song topping the Hottest 100…
